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Cochrane COVID-19 Study Register
Study record
Coutinho 2021First Published: 2021 Mar 16Updated Date: 2021 Mar 16

Model-based evaluation of transmissibility and reinfection for the P.1 variant of the SARS-CoV-2 (preprint)

  1. Study Type
  2. Modelling
  1. Study Aim
  2. Transmission
  3. Epidemiology
  1. Study Design
  2. Other
  1. Intervention Assignment
  2. Not Applicable
Reference record

Model-based evaluation of transmissibility and reinfection for the P.1 variant of the SARS-CoV-2 (preprint)

Coutinho RM, Marquitti FMD, Ferreira LS, Borges ME, da Silva RLP, Canton O, Portella TP, Lyra SP, Franco C, da Silva AAM, Kraenkel RA, de Sousa Mascena Veras MA, Prado PI
Unpublished article (preprint)
Report Results
Summary boxWhat is already known about this topic?What is already known about this topic?A new variant of concern of SARS-CoV-2 (P.1). emerged in the city of Manaus in November 2020. Since then, a sharp increase in COVID-19 cases in Manaus led to the collapse of the health system in early 2021.What is added by this report?What is added by this report?Transmissibility and reinfection of P.1 were estimated using an epidemiological model-based fitting and public health data. The transmissibility is 2.5 times greater than the wild variant and reinfection probability is 6.4% on average.What are the implications for public health practice?What are the implications for public health practice?This new variant poses a global threat due to its very high transmissibility. The results highlight the need to urgently monitor and contain its spread. [Preprints are preliminary reports of work that have not been peer reviewed. Refer to the original preprint or preprint server for specific information about the individual preprint.]